http://www.driversofchange.com/projects/the-ecco-model.php
(video)
You've seen the movie; trawled the web sites; shopped around for that green lifestyle. Like me, do you wonder if we can build enough of this green technology to keep up with economic growth and reduce our voracious appetite for fossil fuels? Alternatively, how can our society can get off the growth tread mill without wholesale collapse of our economy?
Through simple drawings, I explain how its possible to "count up" all our stuff (physical assets) using embodied energy. This is the first step to building a physically based model of an economy. I go onto apply such a model to a scenario for the UK to 2025. Finally I test my scenario against objectives for jobs, national energy security, balance of payments, consumer welfare and CO2 reductions. The scenario scores well! Have you got a scenario you would like tested in this way?
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Sunday, December 13, 2009
M1 Excess Culture: an integrated framework of systems (Introduction)
The thesis seeks to investigate waste as a byproduct of consumerism and how it affects the cultural and economic growth of a society. In fact, if you dissect consumerism, one will find that it is a correlation of several systems that are interconnected, where one is dependant on the other—oil, environment, climate change, cultural impacts, obsolescence, morale, politics, materiality, the urban fabric, and city formations. Where the principles of thermodynamic equilibrium of these systems come to play in an integrated ecosystem that is constantly in flux and at the same time, in pursuit of balance in the natural order. It becomes important too look at this thesis in multiple parallels and as parallels that converge into a whole infrastructure of networked matrices. Keller Easterling considers the idea of what constitutes infrastructure and to think beyond the traditional infrastructure of transportation, communication, and utilities, into a network that includes collective standards of shared mechanisms in order to create our own understanding of space1. Though the topics proposed can be broken down into canonical sources, the importance of each subject is not weighted individually but as a collective, and imparts an approach on how architecture should design in the near future. To change our notion of waste and shift our values from something that is rejected into something that is accepted.
Waste is a scalar thing and also has no scale—it is everywhere, from a candy wrapper to building debris and large mountainous landfills. The term waste designates the elimination of a substance that no one claims or wants ownership of and is a devalued substance at the end of its life cycle, however, there is also no growth biologically and economically without the production and discarding of waste materials. Kevin Lynch, planner and philosopher, claim that it is a process that happens naturally and cannot be controlled, ergo we must accept it and find innovative solutions. He saw that we were all headed in a self-destructive direction that has implications for virtually every profession and that we should promote his philosophy on “positive wasting” and acknowledge this as valuable and necessary in the lives of people, things, and places2.
These solutions, whether through art, architecture, or by common practice, should seek to make waste a valued substance as it will be an abundant source for a future with scarce and depleting natural resources. We should also be mindful that waste as a byproduct has scalar implications on the environmental, social, and political impacts on society. As this topic is a growing problem, only recently have we been able to acknowledge this theme through art and architectural practice and education, by some notable urbanists, artists, and theorists—Kevin Lynch, Michell Joachim, Edward Burtynsky, Mira Engler, Alan Berger—are just some of many contributors to this growing discourse.
The fascination stems from waste being a diverse material that can take on many forms, as much of the waste we produce can be broken down into elements that are similar to the materiality that currently exists in the field of architecture. Since its origins, architecture has used the “waste” of agriculture as a primary material. These inedible parts—wood, hay, reed, bamboo—are often the primary ingredients that make up a building3. So why is it not possible to utilize synthetic man-made waste, given that modern architectural practices have been utilizing synthetic materials in construction since the industrial revolution? Futurist, Alvin Toffler spoke about the waves in historical milestones of civilization. Where the first wave is that of agriculture and the second, thousands of years later, the industrial revolution, and the third wave is the rise of a knowledge based economy in which we are currently in4. The thesis will overlap between the acceleration of the second and third wave intermittently as they are dependant upon each other. All of which stemmed from the industrial age of mass production, consumption, distribution, and mass society that was made possible through the production of cheap energies—coal, natural gas, and oil as the most significant. It is this wave that inspired the disposition of writers such as Orwell and Huxley on their political and dystopic writings.
It is only appropriate that this thesis explores the option of a narrative in parallel with architectural research. The purpose is to distribute a tone of voice that would carry on throughout the thesis to convey a sense of cynicism, black humour, and dystopia, while adopting the styles of Rem Koolhaas, George Orwell, James Howard Kuntsler, as well as my own. Narratives allow for play and a sense of urgency, a strategy that enables all types of people and generations to act empathetically. In Animal Farm, Orwell experimented with this method to tell his story that was written in the type of a fable and follows the traditional pattern of telling a moral tale with the personification of animals. The premise of the thesis’s narrative will follow loosely Orwell’s Nineteen-Eigthy Four from Room 101 where Winston’s worse fear is induced. It will then follow his journey as he experiences the thesis from his personal point of view.
The narrative would set up a scenario for the project that I would like to design. The setting is year 2050, oil has depleted to be almost nonexistent, to the extent that vehicular transportation and production has halted and as a result suburban culture dissipated as those who survived from disease and famine move towards the city in search for survival. Manhattan, a city that never slept was consumed by idleness as nothing came in or out of the city. Landfills become a natural part of the landscape, weaving itself into the different layers of the urban fabric. The sorting of rubble and rubbish become a natural thing as people salvage and ransack materials for survival. Consumed with boredom and the inherent habit of a “working” lifestyle from the past, naturally, a system of sorting, recycling, putting together of “stuff”, artworks, sculptures, and projects—begin to form a new union of jobs and a sense of community. Though intentions may vary, whether to create a sense of purpose, a goal, or to better society at a time of extremity. It is believed that the underlying purpose is to rescue themselves from futureshock, a term invented by Toffler to describe peoples’ reaction to the premature arrival of the future that often results in signs of deteriorated decision making capabilities or disorientation when change comes too quickly to absorb.
The plan is to consider the different types of waste that will be projected onto the city at a time when there will be little movement. A series of projects will investigate the reutilization of waste first as a building material, and second the implementation of waste that will define the city and its new built environment. Projects like a continuous flood barrier, housing, and waste spaces (oppose to green spaces), will closely follow themes of landscape urbanism to define a place’s use and to create adaptable “systems” instead of a rigid and systematic way of organizing space. Where we can begin to see an integrated framework of systems forming a ubiquitous landscape of an environment rich in forums, trading spaces, parks, and places of enlightenment.
Notes:
1. Keller Easterling. “Organization Space: Landscapes, Highways, and Houses in America.” Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1999
2. Kevin Lynch. "Wasting Away". Sierra Club Books: San Francisco, 1990
3. Yona Friedman, “Du Déchet fait art,” L'Architecture d'Aujourd'hui Sept./Oct. 2007: 81
4. Ted Turner, “Executive Interview with Alvin Toffler,” AMEinfo, 22 Aug. 2004, 5 Dec. 2009
Waste is a scalar thing and also has no scale—it is everywhere, from a candy wrapper to building debris and large mountainous landfills. The term waste designates the elimination of a substance that no one claims or wants ownership of and is a devalued substance at the end of its life cycle, however, there is also no growth biologically and economically without the production and discarding of waste materials. Kevin Lynch, planner and philosopher, claim that it is a process that happens naturally and cannot be controlled, ergo we must accept it and find innovative solutions. He saw that we were all headed in a self-destructive direction that has implications for virtually every profession and that we should promote his philosophy on “positive wasting” and acknowledge this as valuable and necessary in the lives of people, things, and places2.
These solutions, whether through art, architecture, or by common practice, should seek to make waste a valued substance as it will be an abundant source for a future with scarce and depleting natural resources. We should also be mindful that waste as a byproduct has scalar implications on the environmental, social, and political impacts on society. As this topic is a growing problem, only recently have we been able to acknowledge this theme through art and architectural practice and education, by some notable urbanists, artists, and theorists—Kevin Lynch, Michell Joachim, Edward Burtynsky, Mira Engler, Alan Berger—are just some of many contributors to this growing discourse.
The fascination stems from waste being a diverse material that can take on many forms, as much of the waste we produce can be broken down into elements that are similar to the materiality that currently exists in the field of architecture. Since its origins, architecture has used the “waste” of agriculture as a primary material. These inedible parts—wood, hay, reed, bamboo—are often the primary ingredients that make up a building3. So why is it not possible to utilize synthetic man-made waste, given that modern architectural practices have been utilizing synthetic materials in construction since the industrial revolution? Futurist, Alvin Toffler spoke about the waves in historical milestones of civilization. Where the first wave is that of agriculture and the second, thousands of years later, the industrial revolution, and the third wave is the rise of a knowledge based economy in which we are currently in4. The thesis will overlap between the acceleration of the second and third wave intermittently as they are dependant upon each other. All of which stemmed from the industrial age of mass production, consumption, distribution, and mass society that was made possible through the production of cheap energies—coal, natural gas, and oil as the most significant. It is this wave that inspired the disposition of writers such as Orwell and Huxley on their political and dystopic writings.
It is only appropriate that this thesis explores the option of a narrative in parallel with architectural research. The purpose is to distribute a tone of voice that would carry on throughout the thesis to convey a sense of cynicism, black humour, and dystopia, while adopting the styles of Rem Koolhaas, George Orwell, James Howard Kuntsler, as well as my own. Narratives allow for play and a sense of urgency, a strategy that enables all types of people and generations to act empathetically. In Animal Farm, Orwell experimented with this method to tell his story that was written in the type of a fable and follows the traditional pattern of telling a moral tale with the personification of animals. The premise of the thesis’s narrative will follow loosely Orwell’s Nineteen-Eigthy Four from Room 101 where Winston’s worse fear is induced. It will then follow his journey as he experiences the thesis from his personal point of view.
The narrative would set up a scenario for the project that I would like to design. The setting is year 2050, oil has depleted to be almost nonexistent, to the extent that vehicular transportation and production has halted and as a result suburban culture dissipated as those who survived from disease and famine move towards the city in search for survival. Manhattan, a city that never slept was consumed by idleness as nothing came in or out of the city. Landfills become a natural part of the landscape, weaving itself into the different layers of the urban fabric. The sorting of rubble and rubbish become a natural thing as people salvage and ransack materials for survival. Consumed with boredom and the inherent habit of a “working” lifestyle from the past, naturally, a system of sorting, recycling, putting together of “stuff”, artworks, sculptures, and projects—begin to form a new union of jobs and a sense of community. Though intentions may vary, whether to create a sense of purpose, a goal, or to better society at a time of extremity. It is believed that the underlying purpose is to rescue themselves from futureshock, a term invented by Toffler to describe peoples’ reaction to the premature arrival of the future that often results in signs of deteriorated decision making capabilities or disorientation when change comes too quickly to absorb.
The plan is to consider the different types of waste that will be projected onto the city at a time when there will be little movement. A series of projects will investigate the reutilization of waste first as a building material, and second the implementation of waste that will define the city and its new built environment. Projects like a continuous flood barrier, housing, and waste spaces (oppose to green spaces), will closely follow themes of landscape urbanism to define a place’s use and to create adaptable “systems” instead of a rigid and systematic way of organizing space. Where we can begin to see an integrated framework of systems forming a ubiquitous landscape of an environment rich in forums, trading spaces, parks, and places of enlightenment.
Notes:
1. Keller Easterling. “Organization Space: Landscapes, Highways, and Houses in America.” Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1999
2. Kevin Lynch. "Wasting Away". Sierra Club Books: San Francisco, 1990
3. Yona Friedman, “Du Déchet fait art,” L'Architecture d'Aujourd'hui Sept./Oct. 2007: 81
4. Ted Turner, “Executive Interview with Alvin Toffler,” AMEinfo, 22 Aug. 2004, 5 Dec. 2009
M1 On Oil
It has been predicted with American geophysicist M. King Hubbert’s model in 1956 that the global petroleum production rates will peak just after year 2000 and has correctly predicted that production of oil from conventional sources would peak in the continental United States around 1970. Though oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, it is increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. Once the peak is passed, oil production slows and costs begin to accelerate, as seen currently in oil and gas prices. We are currently seeing the effects of the depletion of oil in our quotidian lives not to mention its effect on global warming. The issue is not of “running out” of oil, so much as not acquiring enough to keep global economy running that will lead to a collapse, that even a shortage of 10-15% of an oil dependant country is enough to collapse its economy and reduce its citizens to poverty(1).
Perhaps the most dramatic consequence of oil depletion is of agriculture. Pesticides and agro-chemicals are made from oil, commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is from natural gas that will be peaking in the near future, and most farming tools are power driven by oil-derived fuels. Food shortage will be an outcome as transportation and distribution become expensive. The average transport of food in the U.S. is transported almost 2400 km before it is made available, and in Canada, the average is 8000 km (2). In the future, food prices will skyrocket and for those less fortunate, starvation and famine will take hold even on a global scale.
As well, the concept of suburbia will also be under speculation, as commuters can no longer afford to drive into the city, there will be an overflow of people in the near future looking to move closer to the centre. The growth of the city can also harvest new problems with water scarcity and also with health and sanitation. Presently in the United States, 4% of people do not drive, whether because of low income, being handicapped, or age—this number will likely rise, making driving exclusively for the elite class and most likely will harness resentment amongst the general population(3).
We will see an increase in oil nationalism when countries with the most oil is withholding its resources from the future market and then auctioned off to favoured customer relations with other countries that they want to maintain good relations with. The United States will probably tend to be less favoured amongst some of the oil producing nations. The monopoly of oil can potentially cause major warfare while nations battle over oil, not to mention civil wars that will arise from the shortcomings. Cities and nations will eventually fall apart as the consequences are unimaginable. Permanent fuel shortages would bring the world into a generations-long economic depression as millions become unemployed when industries implode. There will no longer be big box stores, clothing stores, cafes, and postal services—the financial economic downfall will be evident.
The financial community begins to accept the reality of Peak Oil.
"They accept that banks created capital during this epoch by lending more than they had on deposit, being confident that tomorrow’s expansion, fuelled by cheap oil-based energy, was adequate collateral for today’s debt. The decline of oil, the principal driver of economic growth, undermines the validity of that collateral which in turn erodes the valuation of most entities quoted on Stock Exchanges."(4)
When truth can no longer be concealed, prices for daily maintenance of life will escalate abruptly, and the support and infrastructure of our civilization will fall. There will be emergency summits, diplomatic initiatives, urgent exploration efforts, but the turmoil will not subside. Thousands of companies will go bankrupt, and millions will be unemployed. Democracy will be shut out, as economic hardships will bring out the worst in people. “Fascists will rise, feeding on the anger of the newly poor and whipping up support. These new rulers will find the tools of repression—emergency laws, prison camps, a relaxed attitude towards torture—already in place, courtesy of the war on terror” (5). Simultaneously, climate change will work against us, making its presence felt “with a vengeance”, while engulfed in financial ruin, food and water supplies will seize and prolonged droughts will crop up in numbers as harvesting crops decline(6).
Almost daily, we see our personal environments changing, whether with work, climate, commuting, spending—we must progress and take nothing for granted as a new Dark Era is emerging for ourselves and generations to come as growth may be coming to an end. The social and economic consequences are cataclysmic as our entire financial order from interest rates, pension funds, insurance, to stock market is dependant on growth(7). We must find new [renewable] alternatives and new ways of using the resources we already acquired in order to alleviate stress globally and especially oil dependant nations.
Notes:
1. Matt Savinar, “Peak Oil”. Life After the Oil Crash, 27 Oct. 2009
2. Stephen Hesse, “Matters of Survival in a Shattered World,” The Japan Times, 25 Apr. 2005, 1 Nov. 2009,
3. James H. Kunstler, Interviewed by Glen Hiemstra for Futurists.com, May 2008,
4. Colin Campbell, “The Financial Consequences of Peak Oil,” 24 Feb 2004, 1 Nov 2009
5. Jeremy Leggett. The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Financial Catastrophe. Random House: New York, 2005
6. Jonathon Gatehouse, “When Oil Runs Out,” Macleans, 9 Feb. 2006, 1 Nov. 2009
7. Bryan Appleyard, “Waiting for the Lights to Go Out,” The Times. 16 Oct. 2005, 3 Nov 2009,
Perhaps the most dramatic consequence of oil depletion is of agriculture. Pesticides and agro-chemicals are made from oil, commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is from natural gas that will be peaking in the near future, and most farming tools are power driven by oil-derived fuels. Food shortage will be an outcome as transportation and distribution become expensive. The average transport of food in the U.S. is transported almost 2400 km before it is made available, and in Canada, the average is 8000 km (2). In the future, food prices will skyrocket and for those less fortunate, starvation and famine will take hold even on a global scale.
As well, the concept of suburbia will also be under speculation, as commuters can no longer afford to drive into the city, there will be an overflow of people in the near future looking to move closer to the centre. The growth of the city can also harvest new problems with water scarcity and also with health and sanitation. Presently in the United States, 4% of people do not drive, whether because of low income, being handicapped, or age—this number will likely rise, making driving exclusively for the elite class and most likely will harness resentment amongst the general population(3).
We will see an increase in oil nationalism when countries with the most oil is withholding its resources from the future market and then auctioned off to favoured customer relations with other countries that they want to maintain good relations with. The United States will probably tend to be less favoured amongst some of the oil producing nations. The monopoly of oil can potentially cause major warfare while nations battle over oil, not to mention civil wars that will arise from the shortcomings. Cities and nations will eventually fall apart as the consequences are unimaginable. Permanent fuel shortages would bring the world into a generations-long economic depression as millions become unemployed when industries implode. There will no longer be big box stores, clothing stores, cafes, and postal services—the financial economic downfall will be evident.
The financial community begins to accept the reality of Peak Oil.
"They accept that banks created capital during this epoch by lending more than they had on deposit, being confident that tomorrow’s expansion, fuelled by cheap oil-based energy, was adequate collateral for today’s debt. The decline of oil, the principal driver of economic growth, undermines the validity of that collateral which in turn erodes the valuation of most entities quoted on Stock Exchanges."(4)
When truth can no longer be concealed, prices for daily maintenance of life will escalate abruptly, and the support and infrastructure of our civilization will fall. There will be emergency summits, diplomatic initiatives, urgent exploration efforts, but the turmoil will not subside. Thousands of companies will go bankrupt, and millions will be unemployed. Democracy will be shut out, as economic hardships will bring out the worst in people. “Fascists will rise, feeding on the anger of the newly poor and whipping up support. These new rulers will find the tools of repression—emergency laws, prison camps, a relaxed attitude towards torture—already in place, courtesy of the war on terror” (5). Simultaneously, climate change will work against us, making its presence felt “with a vengeance”, while engulfed in financial ruin, food and water supplies will seize and prolonged droughts will crop up in numbers as harvesting crops decline(6).
Almost daily, we see our personal environments changing, whether with work, climate, commuting, spending—we must progress and take nothing for granted as a new Dark Era is emerging for ourselves and generations to come as growth may be coming to an end. The social and economic consequences are cataclysmic as our entire financial order from interest rates, pension funds, insurance, to stock market is dependant on growth(7). We must find new [renewable] alternatives and new ways of using the resources we already acquired in order to alleviate stress globally and especially oil dependant nations.
Notes:
1. Matt Savinar, “Peak Oil”. Life After the Oil Crash, 27 Oct. 2009
2. Stephen Hesse, “Matters of Survival in a Shattered World,” The Japan Times, 25 Apr. 2005, 1 Nov. 2009,
3. James H. Kunstler, Interviewed by Glen Hiemstra for Futurists.com, May 2008,
4. Colin Campbell, “The Financial Consequences of Peak Oil,” 24 Feb 2004, 1 Nov 2009
5. Jeremy Leggett. The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Financial Catastrophe. Random House: New York, 2005
6. Jonathon Gatehouse, “When Oil Runs Out,” Macleans, 9 Feb. 2006, 1 Nov. 2009
7. Bryan Appleyard, “Waiting for the Lights to Go Out,” The Times. 16 Oct. 2005, 3 Nov 2009,
Monday, December 7, 2009
Edward Burtynsky: on Manufactured Landscapes + Oil
"Nature transformed through industry is a predominant theme in my work. I set course to intersect with a contemporary view of the great ages of man; from stone, to minerals, oil, transportation, silicon, and so on. To make these ideas visible I search for subjects that are rich in detail and scale yet open in their meaning. Recycling yards, mine tailings, quarries and refineries are all places that are outside of our normal experience, yet we partake of their output on a daily basis.
These images are meant as metaphors to the dilemma of our modern existence; they search for a dialogue between attraction and repulsion, seduction and fear. We are drawn by desire - a chance at good living, yet we are consciously or unconsciously aware that the world is suffering for our success. Our dependence on nature to provide the materials for our consumption and our concern for the health of our planet sets us into an uneasy contradiction. For me, these images function as reflecting pools of our times."
In Manufactured Landscapes, Burtynksy's produced a series of still photography, contextualizing his photographs in the global cycles of energy, production, and waste, by cinematically inhabiting the subjects of his work. While his work serves as a commentary on the impact of large-scale industrialization, Burtynsky claims to neither criticize nor praise these developments, but to bring images to viewers in the hopes of opening their eyes to the realities of the contemporary world.
The series investigates:
1. The production cycle in China (Factories and Recycling),
2. Energy in China (coal industry and Three Gorges Dam),
3. globalization,
4. extraction industries (minding and the oil industries in Canada and U.S.), and also
5. urbanization in China (transformation of old neighbourhoods in Shanghai)
His exhibition on Oil surveys his 10-year journey of expansive documentation into the subjects of oil from:
1. extraction and refinement—how it is drawing from the earth, processed for our use
2. It then proceeds to show how oil is used and its effects—urbanization, roads, cars, etc.
3. And concludes with the destruction and consequences that lie at the end of oil—vast recycling yards, immense installations of defunct oil fields, breaking down of oil tankers
These images are meant as metaphors to the dilemma of our modern existence; they search for a dialogue between attraction and repulsion, seduction and fear. We are drawn by desire - a chance at good living, yet we are consciously or unconsciously aware that the world is suffering for our success. Our dependence on nature to provide the materials for our consumption and our concern for the health of our planet sets us into an uneasy contradiction. For me, these images function as reflecting pools of our times."
In Manufactured Landscapes, Burtynksy's produced a series of still photography, contextualizing his photographs in the global cycles of energy, production, and waste, by cinematically inhabiting the subjects of his work. While his work serves as a commentary on the impact of large-scale industrialization, Burtynsky claims to neither criticize nor praise these developments, but to bring images to viewers in the hopes of opening their eyes to the realities of the contemporary world.
The series investigates:
1. The production cycle in China (Factories and Recycling),
2. Energy in China (coal industry and Three Gorges Dam),
3. globalization,
4. extraction industries (minding and the oil industries in Canada and U.S.), and also
5. urbanization in China (transformation of old neighbourhoods in Shanghai)
His exhibition on Oil surveys his 10-year journey of expansive documentation into the subjects of oil from:
1. extraction and refinement—how it is drawing from the earth, processed for our use
2. It then proceeds to show how oil is used and its effects—urbanization, roads, cars, etc.
3. And concludes with the destruction and consequences that lie at the end of oil—vast recycling yards, immense installations of defunct oil fields, breaking down of oil tankers
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Today I Understood Bush...
If you've been wondering why the Bush administration has been spending money, cutting social programs, and starting wars like there's no tomorrow, now you have your answer: as far as they are concerned, there is no tomorrow.
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
http://www.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)